Lahore Division
Rainfall Analysis
30 years of monthly precipitation across Kasur · Lahore · Nankana Sahib · Sheikhupura
Satellite-gauge merged CHIRPS dataset — district-wise, seasonal & monsoon onset analysis.
📈 District-wise Annual Rainfall (1995–2025)
Total annual rainfall for each of the four Lahore Division districts over 31 years. Lahore consistently records the highest annual totals, reaching a record 1,058 mm in 2025. A pronounced dry spell hit the entire division during 1998–2002, while a strong upward trend is evident from 2015 onwards — consistent with climate change-driven monsoon intensification across the Upper Indus Basin.
📊 Total Rainfall by District — 31 Years (1995–2025)
Lahore leads with 19,368 mm cumulative 31-year rainfall, followed by Sheikhupura (17,990 mm), Nankana Sahib (14,020 mm), and Kasur (13,431 mm). The ~44% difference across the division reflects Lahore’s geographic position closer to the monsoon entry corridor from the Arabian Sea through the Ravi basin.
📅 District-wise Mean Monthly Rainfall (1995–2025)
Average monthly rainfall per district computed across all 31 years. Near-zero rainfall from October to May, then a sharp surge in June–September. July peak: Lahore 201 mm, Sheikhupura 172 mm, Nankana Sahib & Kasur ~129 mm. Winter months (Dec–Feb) show modest Western Disturbance contributions of 18–30 mm.
🍂 Seasonal Contribution to Total Rainfall (1995–2025)
Season definitions (notebook-exact): Monsoon = Jul–Sep (65.3%), Summer = May–Jun (13.3%), Winter = Dec–Feb (9.7%), Spring = Mar–Apr (9.6%), Autumn = Oct–Nov (2.1%). Monsoon alone contributes nearly two-thirds of all rainfall — making Pakistan’s agriculture critically dependent on its timing and intensity.
🌦️ Season-wise Average Rainfall per Year (1995–2025)
Year-by-year breakdown by season. The Monsoon shows the highest year-to-year variability and long-term intensification — spiking sharply in 2021, 2022, 2023 and 2025. Summer (May–Jun pre-monsoon) also shows increasing variability post-2015. Spring and Winter remain comparatively stable across all three decades.
🗓️ Division-Average Monthly Rainfall Heatmap (1995–2025)
Each cell = division-averaged rainfall for that month–year. The monsoon column (Jun–Sep) dominates every year. Extreme events: July 2025 = 365 mm, July 2023 = 287 mm, July 2022 = 269 mm, July 2021 = 263 mm, Aug 2020 = 233 mm. Late 1990s–early 2000s show visibly lighter cells (drier years).
📉 Rainfall Anomaly by District (1995–2025)
Annual deviation from each district’s 31-year long-term mean. The 1998–2004 period was strongly negative (drought-like) across all districts. From 2019 onwards anomalies have been predominantly positive and growing — Lahore’s 2025 anomaly reached +433 mm above its 31-year mean of 625 mm.
📈 Tehsil-wise Annual Rainfall (1995–2025)
Annual total rainfall for all 11 tehsils of Lahore Division — Chunian, Kasur, Pattoki (Kasur District), Lahore Cantt, Lahore City (Lahore District), Nankana Sahib (Nankana District), Ferozewala, Muridke, Safdarabad, Sangla Hill, Sheikhupura (Sheikhupura District). Lahore Cantt & Muridke consistently record the highest annual totals, while Chunian in southern Kasur remains the driest tehsil. The 1998–2002 dry spell is visible across all tehsils, and 2025 is a record year for every tehsil.
📊 Total Rainfall by Tehsil — 31 Years (1995–2025)
Cumulative 31-year rainfall totals ranked highest to lowest across all 11 tehsils. Muridke leads with 20,506 mm, followed by Lahore Cantt (20,148 mm) and Ferozewala (19,698 mm) — all in the northern/central part of the division. Chunian is lowest at 11,941 mm, a 72% difference from the top — reflecting the strong north–south rainfall gradient within the division.
🗓️ Tehsil-wise Mean Monthly Rainfall Heatmap (1995–2025)
Each cell shows the 31-year average rainfall for a given tehsil and month. The monsoon months (July–August) dominate across all tehsils. Lahore Cantt records the highest July average (210 mm), while Chunian & Sangla Hill record the lowest peak values (~109 & 113 mm). Winter months (Jan–Feb) show a clear gradient — northern tehsils receive more Western Disturbance rainfall (25–36 mm) than southern ones (15–20 mm).
📅 Tehsil-wise Mean Monthly Rainfall — Bar Chart (1995–2025)
Grouped bar chart showing average monthly rainfall for each tehsil across all 12 months. Lahore tehsils (Cantt & City) and northern tehsils (Muridke, Ferozewala) show the highest July–August peaks. Southern tehsils (Chunian, Pattoki, Sangla Hill) have significantly lower monsoon peaks. This bar chart makes the intra-division variability clearly visible month by month. Toggle tehsils in the legend to compare individual tehsils.
🌧️ Monsoon Onset Shift Over Time (1995–2025)
Month in which monsoon rainfall first exceeds the 50 mm threshold (notebook-exact methodology). Onset alternates between June and July. Notably, June onsets have become slightly more frequent in recent years (2016, 2017, 2018, 2020, 2022, 2023, 2025) — suggesting a marginal early-onset trend linked to warming Arabian Sea surface temperatures driving moisture inland earlier.