Lahore Division
Rainfall Analysis
30 years of monthly precipitation across Kasur · Lahore · Nankana Sahib · Sheikhupura
Satellite-gauge merged CHIRPS dataset — district-wise, seasonal & monsoon onset analysis.
District-wise Annual Rainfall (1995–2025)
Total annual rainfall for each of the four Lahore Division districts over 31 years. Lahore consistently records the highest annual totals, reaching a record 1,058 mm in 2025. A pronounced dry spell hit the entire division during 1998–2002, while a strong upward trend is evident from 2015 onwards — consistent with climate change-driven monsoon intensification across the Upper Indus Basin.
Total Rainfall by District — 31 Years (1995–2025)
Lahore leads with 19,368 mm cumulative 31-year rainfall, followed by Sheikhupura (17,990 mm), Nankana Sahib (14,020 mm), and Kasur (13,431 mm). The ~44% difference across the division reflects Lahore’s geographic position closer to the monsoon entry corridor from the Arabian Sea through the Ravi basin.
District-wise Mean Monthly Rainfall (1995–2025)
Average monthly rainfall per district computed across all 31 years. Near-zero rainfall from October to May, then a sharp surge in June–September. July peak: Lahore 201 mm, Sheikhupura 172 mm, Nankana Sahib & Kasur ~129 mm. Winter months (Dec–Feb) show modest Western Disturbance contributions of 18–30 mm.
Seasonal Contribution to Total Rainfall (1995–2025)
Season definitions (notebook-exact): Monsoon = Jul–Sep (65.3%), Summer = May–Jun (13.3%), Winter = Dec–Feb (9.7%), Spring = Mar–Apr (9.6%), Autumn = Oct–Nov (2.1%). Monsoon alone contributes nearly two-thirds of all rainfall — making Pakistan’s agriculture critically dependent on its timing and intensity.
Season-wise Average Rainfall per Year (1995–2025)
Year-by-year breakdown by season. The Monsoon shows the highest year-to-year variability and long-term intensification — spiking sharply in 2021, 2022, 2023 and 2025. Summer (May–Jun pre-monsoon) also shows increasing variability post-2015. Spring and Winter remain comparatively stable across all three decades.
Division-Average Monthly Rainfall Heatmap (1995–2025)
Each cell = division-averaged rainfall for that month–year. The monsoon column (Jun–Sep) dominates every year. Extreme events: July 2025 = 365 mm, July 2023 = 287 mm, July 2022 = 269 mm, July 2021 = 263 mm, Aug 2020 = 233 mm. Late 1990s–early 2000s show visibly lighter cells (drier years).
Rainfall Anomaly by District (1995–2025)
Annual deviation from each district’s 31-year long-term mean. The 1998–2004 period was strongly negative (drought-like) across all districts. From 2019 onwards anomalies have been predominantly positive and growing — Lahore’s 2025 anomaly reached +433 mm above its 31-year mean of 625 mm.
Tehsil-wise Annual Rainfall (1995–2025)
Annual total rainfall for all 11 tehsils of Lahore Division — Chunian, Kasur, Pattoki (Kasur District), Lahore Cantt, Lahore City (Lahore District), Nankana Sahib (Nankana District), Ferozewala, Muridke, Safdarabad, Sangla Hill, Sheikhupura (Sheikhupura District). Lahore Cantt & Muridke consistently record the highest annual totals, while Chunian in southern Kasur remains the driest tehsil. The 1998–2002 dry spell is visible across all tehsils, and 2025 is a record year for every tehsil.
Total Rainfall by Tehsil — 31 Years (1995–2025)
Cumulative 31-year rainfall totals ranked highest to lowest across all 11 tehsils. Muridke leads with 20,506 mm, followed by Lahore Cantt (20,148 mm) and Ferozewala (19,698 mm) — all in the northern/central part of the division. Chunian is lowest at 11,941 mm, a 72% difference from the top — reflecting the strong north–south rainfall gradient within the division.
Tehsil-wise Mean Monthly Rainfall Heatmap (1995–2025)
Each cell shows the 31-year average rainfall for a given tehsil and month. The monsoon months (July–August) dominate across all tehsils. Lahore Cantt records the highest July average (210 mm), while Chunian & Sangla Hill record the lowest peak values (~109 & 113 mm). Winter months (Jan–Feb) show a clear gradient — northern tehsils receive more Western Disturbance rainfall (25–36 mm) than southern ones (15–20 mm).
Tehsil-wise Mean Monthly Rainfall — Bar Chart (1995–2025)
Grouped bar chart showing average monthly rainfall for each tehsil across all 12 months. Lahore tehsils (Cantt & City) and northern tehsils (Muridke, Ferozewala) show the highest July–August peaks. Southern tehsils (Chunian, Pattoki, Sangla Hill) have significantly lower monsoon peaks. This bar chart makes the intra-division variability clearly visible month by month. Toggle tehsils in the legend to compare individual tehsils.
Monsoon Onset Shift Over Time (1995–2025)
Month in which monsoon rainfall first exceeds the 50 mm threshold (notebook-exact methodology). Onset alternates between June and July. Notably, June onsets have become slightly more frequent in recent years (2016, 2017, 2018, 2020, 2022, 2023, 2025) — suggesting a marginal early-onset trend linked to warming Arabian Sea surface temperatures driving moisture inland earlier.